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108年 - 108 一般警察特種考試_二等_刑事警察人員犯罪分析組:計算機數學(包括離散數學、機率與統計)#77048
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五、一袋中有 4 個紅色球 4 個藍色球,若每次從袋中取出 2 個球後,不放回 球袋中,總共可取 4 次,每次取出都是 1 個紅色球及 1 個藍色球的機率 為何?(10 分)
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六、擲一公平硬幣 50 次,用中央極限定理(Central Limit Theorem)估算硬 幣正面出現低於 20 次的機率,解答僅需列出數學公式。 (10 分)
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七、重複丟一骰子,若丟出的數字為 6 則立即停止。若丟出的骰子數字為 k, 1 ≤ k ≤ 5 ,則等待 k 分鐘後再丟此骰子。從開始丟骰子到停止丟骰子, 預期要花多少時間?(10 分)
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⑴計算 E[X]。(5 分)
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⑵計算 E[Y]。(5 分)
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九、一間成衣生產工廠生產的成衣有 5%是有瑕疵的,倘若隨機抽取 475 件成 衣做為樣本,瑕疵的比例介於 4%到 6%之間的機率是多少?解答僅需列 出數學公式。(10 分)
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十、新聞報導「成功訪問了 950 人,在 95%的信心水準下,有 62%的人覺得 今年 2 月份的氣候較往年溫暖,抽樣誤差在 3.3%之內」,說明此段話所 指「信心水準」 、「抽樣誤差」之意義。(10 分)
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貳、非選題 一、文章改寫及閱讀測驗命題(共 20 分) 請根據以下文章,改寫成一篇約 300-350 字的文章,並再依改寫後文章設計四題適合高三學生 程度閱讀測驗,每題應有四個選項 The onslaught of digital distractions is taking a big toll on businesses. A new survey from Udemy finds that it’s a special challenge for Millennials and Gen Z workers, 36% of whom report spending two hours or more each workday “looking at their phones for personal activities. “As they lose time to all the distractions around them, employees are “stressed, unmotivated, and feeling bad about themselves, their jobs, and their careers,” the poll found. Three quarters of those who have learned to reduce distractions say they’ve become more productive. It’s the latest addition to a mountain of research warning about this problem: previous articles have explained that “digital overload may be the defining problem of today’s workplace,” and that even simply having a phone nearby damages workers’ performance. So there’s no doubt that steps must be taken to reduce workplace distractions like the constant notifications popping up on screens. But in tackling this problem, businesses also face a Catch-22. The propensity to distraction can also be a good thing. It’s been shown to help increase creativity. As Northwestern University summarized it in a headline, “Creative genius driven by distraction. “A study found that “leaky attention may underlie both costs and benefits of creative cognition; noise and other environmental stimuli can serve as distractors for creative people, and lead them to make errors on some tasks. At the same time, leaky attention may help people integrate ideas that are outside the focus of attention into their current information processing, leading to creative thinking.” After wrestling with this challenge myself, I discovered that there is a way to maximize both focus and creativity — but it takes work. A few years ago, I found myself in a professional crisis. I wasn’t making headway on any of my projects. My productivity and creativity had plummeted. I realized that I had become addicted to distraction. I was online or on my phone virtually all the time, needlessly consuming content with no real bearing on my personal or work life. The irony was not lost on me. I’ve spent my career as a digital analyst, so I am well aware that many apps and social media platforms are specifically designed to be addictive. There are two ways to readily influence behavior: manipulate it or inspire it. Technology companies have chosen, for the most part, to manipulate it. Many have found the attention economywildly lucrative. I didn’t realize that I’d be so susceptible. So now, I set about finding a solution that could work for me and the businesses I advise. They key, I discovered, is to accept and even embrace the desire to check notifications, read various media, or even watch videos — but to teach myself patience in doing so. I began to build my workday with frequent breaks for “productive distraction.” I use these planned breaks to let those impulses run free. I also try to include something physical during breaks, like a moment of simple, brief meditation, which helps reset my mind and gives me fresh perspective when I resume work. Being organized about this makes all the difference. Research has found that scheduling these pauses boosts creativity. Because I know these breaks are coming up, I find it easier to stop myself from giving into every distraction. I can simply tell myself that I’ll have the opportunity to follow that impulse when the next break hits. It took months, but I got my periods of continuous, intensely focused work up to about 22 minutes, using my own take on the the Pomodoro Technique. As a result, just like the people surveyed by Udemy, I found myself not only more creative, but also happier. (In the survey, three quarters of people who have learned to reduce distractions also report being more productive, while 56% say they’re happier at work. For the millions of workers surrounded by an ever-evolving set of digital distractions, all this may sound easier said than done. It takes intentionality. Every day, we each have the choice to commit to changing our behavior. That includes unlearning bad habits, such as frequently checking social media platforms (which have “hijacked” our psychological propensity for social reciprocity). Much of it boils down to redefining FOMO, changing it from “fear of missing out” to “finally over missing out. “A researcher at Copenhagen Business School, writing in MIT Sloan Management Review, casts productive distraction as a way of balancing curiosity and concentration, maximizing the extent to which you both “actively seek diverse input” and focus on tasks at hand. I’m proof that it can be done.
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二、英文作文(共 20 分) Can you imagine a world without the Internet? Please elaborate your ideas and design a course in terms of objectives, target student level, course content and ways of assessment
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1 .某商人往返甲、乙、丙三個城鎮做生意,每天只待在其中一個城鎮,隔天便隨 機前往另一個城鎮,且選擇前往某城鎮之機會均等。現已知此商人本週一在甲 城鎮做生意,請問他下週一又回到甲城鎮做生意之機率為______ 。
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2 . 已知 之值為 ______。
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